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  • Cashew nut market forecast: Crude price is hard to spike

    Dec 12th, 2018

    The world's crude trade is slowing. Domestic plants are preparing for Tet holiday so the demand for raw materials is not high. The price of raw materials in the country will be difficult to spike from now until after Lunar New Year. This is from the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas) cashew market in the first 11 months of 2019. At the beginning of December, the raw material trading in the domestic market is quite quiet. The reason is that the price of cashew nuts is falling, the price of raw cashew is less attractive and facing the indifference from the processing plant.

    Major transactions take place in factories that are in demand because of lack of raw materials or because they have signed export contracts at high prices in November, December is the month of many important holidays in both the United States and the EU. All supermarkets are busy selling. This important moment will indicate demand next year.  Customers change the purchase and sale, "market" thing last year quiet

    In the short term, the contracts for December 2018 and January 2016 have been implemented at the production stage, so the demand is expected to weak in the coming time. Importers will trade slowly, not engage in new business unless unexpected demand. New crop season in the major producing countries is expected to harvest sooner, so cashew kernel supply will increase sharply in the coming time, especially in January and February 2019.

    In the country, the cashew area from 2007 to 2015 has been continuously reduced from 440,000 hectares to 290,000 hectares. Expected in 2018, area for harvesting 283,800ha; Output reached 354,800 tons. However, according to Tran Van Khoi - Director of the National Center for Agricultural Extension, input raw material for cashew nut processing is always shortage due to the area of ​​perennial plant old (accounting for 60%). The area of ​​aging, pestilent insects, poor growth of about 80,000 ha in the Southeast. The weather is not favorable, the outbreak of continuous disease also affects the yield and quality of cashew nuts.

    In Africa, big supplies like Tanzania have yet to provide the market with raw cashew nuts. Vinacas said that the Tanzanian state has revised up its product forecast, from 220,000 tonnes to 275,000 tonnes. However, Tanzania does not clearly show a move in the export of raw cashew nuts, although it is the main agricultural product exported from this country.

    Tanzania has 23 cashew processing plants, but only eight are in operation. It is reported that the Government of Tanzania continues to ban the export of roughage in the 2018 - 2019 period. And they are negotiating joint ventures with domestic and foreign companies involved in cashew processing in the country. Vinacas said the Tanzanian story will continue to hurt those who still want to solve the problem of supplying nearly 300,000 tons of raw materials.

    Assessing the general situation, Pham Van Cong, Chairman of Vinacas, said that the domestic market is entering a stable period lasting until the end of the year. 2018 is about to end and the Lunar New Year is approaching, and the fact is that there are many hermetic shells in production. Demand for raw materials is not high so it is unlikely that the price of crude in the country hard to rise from now until after Lunar New Year.

    The harvest in 2019 in Vietnam, Cambodia again the same time in West Africa. Regardless of whether Tanzania is discharged or not, it is unlikely that the upward trend of this crude commodity could be created. On the other hand, if Tanzania discharge, does not exclude the possibility that price of crude will be affected when the price trend drops in the season itself.

    According to statistics, the export of cashew nuts in Dong Nai decreased sharply in both quantity and price. In the first 11 months of this year, enterprises in Dong Nai only exported nearly 50,000 tons of cashew nuts multiplied by turnover of nearly $ 97 million; decreased 24% in volume and 32% in price.

    Exporting cashew nuts this year is difficult due to limited domestic raw materials. Enterprises are forced to import raw materials from abroad. However, raw materials imported high prices, quality inferior raw materials in the country, the price also lower. Therefore, the profitability of exporters of cashew nuts is low, many orders just withdraw the capital should reduce the export volume.